War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".